Week Ahead (5-9/9/2011

Next week will be a relatively light news week for the US. There will be no trading on Monday as it will be the labor day bank holiday. On Tuesday the ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index), It's a leading monthly indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to  market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. If the actual release is higher than the forecast of 51.3 then the markets should rally. The next major news release comes on Thursday with Unemployment claims and the trade balance. Forecast come in at 409k and –50.3B respectively. Based on Fridays jobs number expect light volume going into the release and bearish bets as well. Also there is the trade balance which will be watched carefully to see whether there was actually a contraction in global trade. Also watch for the ECB press conference on Thursday and any  announcements on austerity measures or new policies to aid Greece or Italy. If there is any significant announcement Wall Street and other  European indices could rally  violently. NEWS Monday: - Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: - Thursday: Unemployment Claims  & Trade Balance Friday: -

Week Ahead (Aug 15-19)

Monday starts the week’s flow of news with the TIC long-term purchases.  This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities, which will be a good indicator of how capital flowed in this volatile month for the market.

Building Permits will be released on Tuesday. It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building which will indicate how the housing market recovery is doing.

On Wednesday we have the release of the PPI (Producer Price Index). This tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data , which is on Thursday, because it's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

CPI  will be released on Thursday showing consumer prices  for the month accounting for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Unemployment Claims will also be released on Thursday. This is currently the nation's most important economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week but will be important as it is one of the most watched economic data amongst the street. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health.