Commentary 10/14/2011

Commentary 21st Disconnect between stock prices & Cos

With the recent “crash” in the stock market, those who follow Wall Street’s shenanigans would’ve noticed the massive disconnect between the Marco and Micro economic climate. It’s strange how economists will say we are on the edge of a recession and the CEOs say things are just a bit slower. How can this be?

Equity markets are “supposed” to be driven by the earnings of the underlying companies that these stocks are supposed to represent. It’s therefore a surprise that the market sold off so aggressively while companies reported record earnings in the second quarter of this year ( Q2 2011). Furthermore the cash positions held by these companies have been at record levels for 10 consecutive quarters; according to S&P companies hold almost $1 trillion in cash

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On the Macro-economic side of things firms hoarding cash instead of putting that money to work, building new plants or hiring more workers is not good for the US economy. However, companies have been able to cope with a changing consumer and 9% unemployment. They have been able to deal with that and create record earnings without taking on too much risks or spending the cash that they have. Companies are essentially doing more with less. On the other hand large, multinational companies are benefiting from growth outside of the United States. In 2010, 46% of all the sales from S&P 500 companies were from outside of the United States, according to S&P. And that number is expected to continue to grow. It makes these companies even more resilient against what happens in the U.S.

Unfortunately, in 2011 we saw unrest in North Africa as well as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Prior to both of these events, we were talking about 3%+ GDP growth. Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East led to a huge spike in gas prices and when oil prices rise unexpectedly, both consumers and businesses get spooked. Gas prices hit consumers directly in their wallets, and decreased consumer spending is one of the main reasons the economy has gotten off to such a slow start this year.

Investors were in a panic selling zone, and while the stocks have hit the floor of valuation, speculators continue to throw the proverbial baby out with the bath water. However if they would take the time to listen to the CEOs of the companies they continue to short sell then maybe we would be sitting nice and comfortable at Dow 12500.