Tuesday 16 August 2011

Week Ahead (Aug 15-19)

Monday starts the week’s flow of news with the TIC long-term purchases.  This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities, which will be a good indicator of how capital flowed in this volatile month for the market.
Building Permits will be released on Tuesday. It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building which will indicate how the housing market recovery is doing.
On Wednesday we have the release of the PPI (Producer Price Index). This tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data , which is on Thursday, because it's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
CPI  will be released on Thursday showing consumer prices  for the month accounting for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
Unemployment Claims will also be released on Thursday. This is currently the nation's most important economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week but will be important as it is one of the most watched economic data amongst the street. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health.

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